10 Top CRE Players On Recession Timing And Where The Industry Could Feel It First

No one knows exactly when the recession could hit or how severe it may be. But there is no denying recent events indicate this record-long economic expansion may be reaching its conclusion.

The inversion of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has raised alarms, as it has been one of the most reliable signals of recessions in the past. And while the next downturn is predicted to be shorter and more concentrated than years gone by, many investors are exercising caution.

The economic outlook will be a major topic at Bisnow’s National Finance Summit in Manhattan this month, so we reached out to some of the industry’s biggest players to ask what assets classes could feel most pain in a slowdown, and how they are preparing for what could lie ahead.

Mosaic Real Estate founder Ethan Penner: The inverted yield curve is a very telling sign and, combined with the dislocation associated with the Trump trade policy, should have folks concerned about a global economic slowdown. I find it wasteful to try to forecast timing of the technical recession, and prefer to just acknowledge that we’re likely to be experiencing slowing down even now that could/should last for a bit.